Posts
All the articles I've posted.
-
The Rest Paradox: Why Bye Teams Keep Winning Games But Losing Bets
Bye week teams are 7-0 straight up in the divisional round. Teams with rest advantage are 1-6 ATS. Here's why the market keeps getting this wrong.
-
45-TD Curse: Why Elite QB Seasons Never Win Super Bowls
Six QBs threw 45+ TDs in a season. All won 12+ games. None won a Super Bowl. The data reveals why individual QB excellence isn't enough to win it all.
-
The Home Underdog Paradox: Why Big Playoff Spreads Don't Cover
Home underdogs getting 7.5+ points cover at 51.3% in NFL playoffs. Small spreads? Just 36%. The market misprices home field when it matters most.
-
Vegas Gets the Spread Right But Misjudges Home Wins
Seven seasons of data show Vegas achieves 48.5% ATS efficiency, yet home teams win 8% more often than spreads suggest. The gap reveals a subtle edge.
-
The Playoff Experience Myth: First-Time QBs Win Just as Often as Veterans
Analysis of 306 playoff games reveals QB experience provides no advantage. First-timers win 44% vs. elite vets at 54% - markets already know.
-
Rams Cover 60% as Road Favorites Despite 37% Win Rate
The Rams cover 60% as road favorites but win just 37% straight-up. This betting paradox reveals when McVay's squad delivers value despite losing.