Archives
All the articles I've archived.
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The Rest Paradox: Why Bye Teams Keep Winning Games But Losing Bets
Bye week teams are 7-0 straight up in the divisional round. Teams with rest advantage are 1-6 ATS. Here's why the market keeps getting this wrong.
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45-TD Curse: Why Elite QB Seasons Never Win Super Bowls
Six QBs threw 45+ TDs in a season. All won 12+ games. None won a Super Bowl. The data reveals why individual QB excellence isn't enough to win it all.
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The Home Underdog Paradox: Why Big Playoff Spreads Don't Cover
Home underdogs getting 7.5+ points cover at 51.3% in NFL playoffs. Small spreads? Just 36%. The market misprices home field when it matters most.
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Vegas Gets the Spread Right But Misjudges Home Wins
Seven seasons of data show Vegas achieves 48.5% ATS efficiency, yet home teams win 8% more often than spreads suggest. The gap reveals a subtle edge.
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The Playoff Experience Myth: First-Time QBs Win Just as Often as Veterans
Analysis of 306 playoff games reveals QB experience provides no advantage. First-timers win 44% vs. elite vets at 54% - markets already know.
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Rams Cover 60% as Road Favorites Despite 37% Win Rate
The Rams cover 60% as road favorites but win just 37% straight-up. This betting paradox reveals when McVay's squad delivers value despite losing.
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Rest Advantage Paradox: Why Unbeaten Doesn't Mean Unbettable
Teams with 8+ days rest are unbeaten in the playoffs (3-0). But that small sample only covers 66.7% ATS, and the market knows it. The rest advantage is real but priced in.
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The NFL's Seventh Seed Problem: 1-9 Record Since 2020
Since the 2020 playoff expansion, seventh-seeded teams are 1-9 in Wild Card games (10%), with only the 2023 Packers breaking through against statistical odds.
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The Playoff Rematch Paradox: Why Regular Season Results Don't Matter
When playoff rivals meet again, the regular season winner wins just 58% of the time. The playoff game is essentially a coin flip.
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Sophomore QBs and Championship Games: The Experience Gap
Sophomore QBs reach championship games but win just 33% of Super Bowls vs 55% for veterans—a 22-point experience gap when everything's on the line.
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The Conference Championship Under Curse That Never Was
Conference championship games are supposed to go under. The data from 49 games since 1999 tells a different story—61% went over the total.
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NFL Referees Don't Impact Totals—But Three Hate Home Teams
Six years of NFL data debunk the penalty-heavy refs theory on totals, but reveal three officials with a statistically significant anti-home bias against the spread.
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The bye week paradox: Why rested teams win games but lose bets
Teams coming off bye weeks win 55% of games but cover the spread just 48% of the time. The betting market is overvaluing rest—and it's costing bettors money.
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The Divisional Round Curse: Why Top Seeds Keep Falling
First-round byes were supposed to be an advantage. The data tells a different story.
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The Backup QB Championship Paradox
When stars go down, backups step up—and win at a surprising rate in big games.
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The Dynasty Cliff: How NFL Empires End
Every dynasty falls. The data reveals a predictable pattern in how it happens.