With Bo Nix’s season-ending injury, Jarrett Stidham will start the AFC Championship for Denver. History suggests this might not be the disaster many expect.
The Unexpected Pattern
Backup quarterbacks in championship games have historically outperformed expectations. The combination of lowered expectations, defensive gameplanning difficulties, and simplified offensive schemes creates a unique advantage.
Historical Success Stories
- Nick Foles (2017 Eagles) - Super Bowl MVP
- Jeff Hostetler (1990 Giants) - Super Bowl champion
- Earl Morrall (1968 Colts) - NFL MVP as backup
Why Backups Succeed
- Defensive uncertainty - Less film, less familiarity
- Simplified playbook - Focus on execution over complexity
- Underdog mentality - Nothing to lose, everything to gain
- Team rallying effect - Defense and special teams elevate
The Stidham Situation
Denver’s elite defense forced 5 turnovers against Buffalo. If they can maintain that level against Seattle, Stidham only needs to manage the game.
The data suggests we shouldn’t count the Broncos out just because their starter went down.
Analysis based on playoff data from 1970-present. statz.guru/nfl